The United States Air Force is navigating a complex landscape as it seeks to expand its fighter fleet to meet operational demands. The service has expressed a need for 1,558 combat-ready, manned fighters, a significant increase from the current 1,271, to maintain low operational risk. This ambition underscores the challenges faced by the Air Force as it modernizes its fleet while addressing budgetary and logistical constraints.
In a report released in August and signed by Air Force Secretary Troy Meink, the Air Force outlined its strategy to grow its fighter fleet over the next decade. This report was mandated by Congress as part of the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act and emphasizes the necessity of minimizing risk by expanding the fleet. The Air Force official, speaking with reporters, acknowledged that achieving these goals would require a substantial increase in the budget.
“There is insufficient top line, currently, to cover everything that we want to do,” the official noted. He further emphasized, “We need more Air Force, and this [report] backs it up on the [tactical air] side.”
The current fleet includes roughly 103 A-10 Warthogs, which are scheduled for retirement by the end of fiscal 2026. This reduction necessitates a significant increase in new fighters to meet the low-risk operational threshold. The Air Force defines low risk as being very likely to achieve objectives with full capacity to support combat commanders’ requirements and handle various conflicts with limited stress.
To operate at medium risk, which implies a likelihood of achieving objectives, the Air Force would need approximately 1,367 combat-coded fighters. However, achieving this growth is complicated by potential funding shortfalls, production limitations, and the typical delays associated with new military technology development.
High Stakes in Modernization
The Air Force is currently engaged in its largest modernization effort, introducing new fighters such as the Lockheed Martin F-35A Joint Strike Fighter and Boeing’s F-15EX Eagle II. Simultaneously, it’s developing a new class of semi-autonomous drones, known as collaborative combat aircraft, and the sixth-generation Boeing F-47. However, the development and deployment of these advanced fighters are fraught with challenges, including budgetary constraints and technological hurdles.
The report highlights the F-35’s vital role in the Air Force’s future, with plans to acquire as many units as the industry can produce. The goal is to reach a total of 1,763 F-35s, but production and modernization challenges, such as delays in the Technology Refresh 3 and Block 4 upgrades, pose significant obstacles.
The Air Force official mentioned that Lockheed Martin can currently produce between 130 and 140 F-35s annually, but future adjustments in production focus, particularly on the F-35A variant, could increase availability for the Air Force.
Challenges as the Fleet Evolves
Besides modernization, the Air Force is grappling with a pilot shortage exacerbated by training bottlenecks and manpower limitations. The service plans to retire the remaining A-10 Warthogs by September 2026 and is nearing completion of divesting its older F-15C and D fighters. However, the F-15E Strike Eagles will remain a core component of the fleet.
Maintaining older aircraft has become increasingly resource-intensive, diverting funds from modernizing newer planes and stressing maintenance facilities. The shrinking industrial base also complicates sourcing critical parts for these aging aircraft.
A potential game-changer for the Air Force is the introduction of collaborative combat aircraft (CCAs), such as the General Atomics YFQ-42A and Anduril’s YFA-44A, which are currently in testing. Once operational, CCAs could assume various roles, including strike, surveillance, and electronic warfare, potentially reducing the number of manned fighters needed.
The Air Force official stated, “CCAs will affect the bottom line. We don’t know by how much at this point, but certainly that will buy down some of that requirement.”
