As Labor Day approaches, union workers may find themselves reflecting on the famous question posed by Ronald Reagan: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” The mood may be somber as they grapple with economic challenges and uncertainties.
Regardless of union affiliation, workers across the United States are feeling the pinch of escalating food and gasoline prices. Meanwhile, unionized workers face additional pressures from a sluggish economy, the looming impact of AI and automation, and unmet corporate investment promises for new plants.
The economy seems particularly bleak for unionized workers, especially following significant job cuts during President Donald Trump’s second term. The elimination of approximately 400,000 federal positions, many previously union-represented, has disrupted numerous lives.
The upcoming elections may see weary blue-collar voters looking for candidates who can offer practical economic solutions and empathy. According to a labor studies scholar, these factors could heavily influence the union vote.
The Union Vote
Historically, union members have leaned toward Democratic candidates, although this support has fluctuated since the 1970s. The 2024 presidential election continued this trend, albeit with less enthusiasm than in the past.
Union voters are especially significant in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, where union membership exceeds the national average of 10%. In these states, even minor shifts in union support could sway tightly contested races.
What’s in Store This November?
Union representation has declined over the years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that union membership fell from 20.1% in 1983 to 10.0% in 2025. Public sector workers are more likely to be unionized than their private sector counterparts.
During the 2024 campaign, Trump pledged to curb consumer prices, revive manufacturing jobs, and uphold workers’ rights. As midterms approach, union voters’ perceptions of his success in these areas could be pivotal in determining congressional control.
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Manufacturing Jobs and Inflation
Since January 2025, the U.S. has seen a loss of 75,000 manufacturing jobs, continuing a long-term decline. While Trump’s tariffs might benefit some domestic manufacturers, they also risk reducing job opportunities due to increased automation. Economist Laura Veldkamp observed that tariffs have “made it more profitable for American manufacturers to set up and produce here.”
Mark Zandi from Moody’s pointed out that increased manufacturing output does not necessarily equate to more jobs, as the tech and defense-aerospace sectors expand without significantly increasing employment. Additionally, Trump’s efforts to combat inflation remain unclear, with food prices rising above historical averages.
The legacy of industrial decline in the 1970s and 1980s continues to affect older blue-collar workers, contributing to potential voter unrest in the upcoming elections.
Union Representation
The Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 allowed federal workers to unionize. However, in March 2025, the Trump administration criticized the act, claiming it allowed unions to obstruct management. Through executive orders and widespread layoffs, Trump has altered public sector union dynamics.
Federal unions have pushed back against these changes, with courts ruling against several administration efforts. Whether private sector union workers will support their public sector counterparts remains to be seen.
