Political campaigns often bring intense scrutiny over electoral map boundaries, and Montana is no exception. Recent claims by Republican congressional candidate Aaron Flint have sparked a debate over the fairness of the state’s districting process.
Controversial Claims on District Boundaries
During a June 18 interview on the David Webb Show, Flint suggested that Montana’s 1st Congressional District was designed to favor Democrats. Flint, who is challenging Democrat Sam Forstag, argued, “After the 2020 census, the state got split in two. This Western congressional district that I’m running for this year is a battleground district. This race could determine control of the House of Representatives, but the Democrats basically gerrymandered this seat here in western Montana for a time like this.” Flint echoed similar sentiments on social media in 2023, claiming that “Dems control redistricting which gave us the gerrymandered districts.”
Fact-Checking the Claims
Contrary to Flint’s statements, the current congressional map of Montana was actually proposed by Republicans. It was approved by the chair of Montana’s bipartisan redistricting commission, following the 2020 census which resulted in Montana gaining a second U.S. House seat for the first time in nearly 30 years.
Kendra Miller, a Democrat on the redistricting commission, told the Associated Press that the new map is favorable to Republicans and is “not a competitive district in my mind.” Her assessment is supported by historical data showing that Democrats would have won the district only about 25% of the time if the map had existed before 2020. Dan Stusek, a Republican member of the commission, expressed satisfaction with the map, stating he was “pleasantly surprised” by its approval.
Current Electoral Landscape
Despite the historical leaning of the district, electoral dynamics remain fluid. A poll conducted by Impact Research in June revealed a neck-and-neck race between Flint and Forstag, with a significant number of voters still undecided.
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