Arizona’s Primary Election Sees Record Low Turnout
In a significant drop from the previous midterm elections, Arizona’s recent primary election experienced the lowest voter turnout in almost 20 years. The latest data from the state’s 15 counties shows participation at just under 27%, a noticeable decline from the 35% turnout during the 2022 midterms.
Political analyst Paul Bentz attributes this decrease partly to a change in the primary election schedule, noting, “Primaries used to take place in September, and then they moved them to late August and then to early August, and now we’ve moved it to mid-July, and I think voters have fallen a little behind being aware of what’s going on.”
The lack of high-stakes races on the ballot further dampened voter enthusiasm. Key contests included incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs, who faced no opposition for governor, and Congressman Andy Biggs, who easily secured the GOP nomination.
Bentz predicts that if the low turnout trend extends to the general election in November, it might favor Republicans, as the committed MAGA supporters are generally consistent voters. Conversely, groups such as left-leaning independents and younger liberal voters are less predictable.
“The question is do they show up now that the die has been cast and that they have you know the general election races are they waiting to show up then? Or does this just indicate that we’re going to see overall lower voter turnout in general,” Bentz observed.
Historically, turnout rates are lower during primary elections compared to general elections, and midterm elections tend to draw fewer voters than presidential election years.
Bentz also mentioned the impact of negative campaigning on voter participation, stating, “I’m adjusting down closer to anticipating lower turnout especially since we’re seeing out of the gate we’re already seeing negative campaigning. Negative campaigns tend to suppress voter turnout going into the general election.”
