In the evolving landscape of Brazilian politics, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finds himself at a pivotal juncture as he embarks on a presidential campaign. Despite the backing of his father’s Liberal Party, he faces an array of challenges, including the absence of key alliances and the need to secure a running mate, all while navigating the shifting dynamics of support both domestically and internationally.
Challenges in Forming Alliances
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign launch in São Paulo was marked by the absence of significant political figures and centrist party support, which his father previously enjoyed. Among the 500 attendees, his stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, a notable figure among evangelical voters, was absent, indicating possible fractures within his support base. This comes amidst public exchanges of criticism between them, although she did address the convention via a pre-recorded video, mentioning him briefly.
International Endorsements and Notable Absences
Despite the domestic hurdles, Bolsonaro has managed to garner international endorsements, including support from Argentina’s President Javier Milei and a video message from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Both leaders expressed support, with Milei emphasizing the need to move away from “the Lula risk” of continued progressive politics in Brazil. However, Jair Bolsonaro, owing to his 27-year sentence over a coup attempt, could not attend, leaving an AI-generated video to fill his absence.
Strategies and Setbacks
As Flávio Bolsonaro moves forward, he continues the search for a high-profile female running mate, having been unsuccessful in recruiting former Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina. Her party’s unexpected distance from his campaign further complicates his strategy. However, some within the party, like lawmaker Zé Trovao, view this as an opportunity for a more ideologically driven campaign, anticipating eventual alliances against President Lula.
Internal and External Obstacles
Bolsonaro’s campaign has faced numerous setbacks, including a controversial request for funds from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, which led to diminishing support. His subsequent visit to the U.S. aimed at securing a “Trump boost” did not go as planned, with new tariffs imposed on Brazilian exports shortly after. Additionally, he has faced criticism for repeating debunked claims about Brazil’s voting system, echoing issues that rendered his father ineligible for candidacy.
Amidst these challenges, Flávio Bolsonaro and his stepmother have reconciled, with Michelle Bolsonaro accepting his apology, potentially signaling a unified front as the campaign ramps up. “Let’s sit down, let’s talk, let’s adjust details and together we will get a big army of people who do good to rescue our Brazil,” she stated in a recent video.
Political analyst Thomas Traumann notes that Bolsonaro’s initial positioning as a moderate has shifted, suggesting he now relies heavily on his radical core supporters. The question remains whether he can broaden his appeal while maintaining this base as the campaign progresses.
