Election Dynamics: Few Competitive Districts Shape Congressional Control
As Election Day approached, the landscape for competitive House districts remained notably limited. According to the Cook Political Report, only 27 House districts fell into the competitive category. Other election analysts identified even fewer as toss-ups or leaning districts. Ultimately, the competitiveness of the field aligned with these predictions.
A total of 37 districts were decided by a margin of five or fewer percentage points—22 won by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. Among these, only 19 districts switched party allegiance.
In stark contrast, over 80% of districts were decided by comfortable margins of 10 percentage points or more—169 for Democrats and 198 for Republicans, constituting 90% of the GOP’s House majority. These districts were not just safe but exceedingly secure.
Overall, nearly 60% of House districts—112 for Democrats and 132 for Republicans—had winning candidates with margins of 25 percentage points or more. A remarkable observation is that there were more districts won by margins exceeding 40 to 50 percentage points (55 districts) than those decided by five or fewer points (37 districts).
While the scarcity of competition in the districts can partly be attributed to the inherent political leanings in certain regions, the map-drawing process also played a significant role. Republican-controlled governments were notably influential in shaping the electoral maps.
Republicans were responsible for drawing 184 districts, accounting for 42% of all congressional districts—more than any other group. These states include many in the rapidly growing South, where diverse suburbs could potentially support competitive districts, as seen in states like California, Nebraska, and New York. During the 2018 and 2020 elections, the southern suburbs, including those in Georgia and Texas, were hotbeds for competitive races.
Yet, with maps revised after the 2020 census, states where Republicans controlled the map drawing saw only 8 districts decided by a margin of five or fewer percentage points. This means just 4% of districts in Republican-drawn states experienced close races in 2024.
Conversely, independent commissions drew 82 out of 435 House districts and managed to create 12 competitive districts. This shows that independent commissions produced three times more competitive districts on a percentage basis than Republican-drawn districts.
The disparities between regions and parties regarding competitive elections are also evident.
In the South, where Republicans managed nearly all district lines, only 2 out of 111 districts won by Republicans were decided by fewer than 10 points, with just 1 district in Virginia, adopted by a court due to a redistricting impasse, decided by fewer than 5 points. In contrast, 75 of these southern districts were secured by Republican candidates with margins of 25 points or more.
This trend mirrors outcomes from previous election cycles in 2020 and 2022, where different maps and conditions produced similar results.
Ironically, the strategy of creating numerous super-safe Republican districts may have limited the extent of the party’s victories in 2024.
In the recent election cycle, Republicans won the national House vote by just over a point more than in 2022. Despite this, they ended up with a slightly reduced majority. This paradox can be attributed to the manner in which Republicans conducted gerrymandering during the last redistricting process.
Texas serves as a prime example. Anticipating the 2021 redistricting, Republicans faced an increasingly Democratic electorate due to the state’s diversifying population and shifting suburban politics. In 2018, Democrats captured two suburban districts, and Beto O’Rourke’s close Senate race against Ted Cruz highlighted this trend. Faced with these challenges, Republicans chose to protect GOP incumbents over targeting Democratic seats.
To achieve this, districts were reconfigured to concentrate Republican voters, ensuring GOP victories with substantial margins. While advantageous for incumbents, this strategy left few opportunities for Republicans to gain swing districts in favorable election years. As a side effect, Democratic seats became equally secure.
Paradoxically, this cautious approach by Republican line drawers in Texas and elsewhere might aid Democrats in reclaiming the House in the future, as it reduces the potential size of Republican majorities.
Although the current maps show an abundance of safe districts and few competitive ones, Democrats can still find paths to a majority. If future elections resemble the Democratic successes of 2018 or 2020, rather than the Republican-favorable 2024, the party has a chance to regain control.
