In Texas, a voting law implemented in 2021 continues to impact voter participation, particularly among nonwhite communities. This law, known as Senate Bill 1, was introduced with the aim of curbing voter fraud, despite evidence that widespread fraud is largely nonexistent (source). The legislation has made it more challenging to vote by mail and eliminated conveniences introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic, including 24-hour and drive-thru voting options.
Research from the Brennan Center highlights that thousands of mail ballot applications and ballots were rejected in the 2022 primary, disproportionately affecting nonwhite voters (source). A new working paper by the Brennan Center, alongside Michael G. Miller and Ian Shapiro, reveals that those who faced rejections in the primary were significantly less likely to participate in subsequent elections, such as the 2022 general election and the 2024 primary. Notably, voters who did continue to vote often transitioned from mail to in-person voting, incurring additional time and travel costs, and potentially reducing their future participation.
Impact of S.B. 1 on 2022 Texas Primaries
Senate Bill 1 mandates voters to provide a partial Social Security number or state ID number on mail ballot applications and the ballots themselves. These numbers must match the records in the state’s registration database. Discrepancies, such as using a state ID number when only a Social Security number was previously registered, led to ballot rejections. During the 2022 primary, around 30,000 out of 215,000 mail ballot requests were rejected due to these requirements, and nearly 90% of those affected did not participate in the election.
The rejection rates were not uniform across demographics. Black, Latino, and Asian voters experienced higher rejection rates than white voters due to incorrect or missing ID numbers. Interestingly, no significant racial differences were observed in rejections for other reasons, such as late ballot submissions. Additionally, women, Republicans, independents, and older voters experienced slightly higher rejection rates.
Effects Persisting in the 2022 General Election
The repercussions of S.B. 1 extended beyond the primaries. Voters with rejected applications or ballots in the primary were markedly less likely to vote in the general election that year. Application rejections resulted in a 16 percentage point decrease in turnout for the fall election compared to expected participation without the restrictive law. Similarly, those whose ballots were rejected in the primary were 1.5 percentage points less likely to vote in the general election.
Moreover, a notable portion of those affected either abstained from voting or switched to in-person voting. This trend continued into the March 2024 primary, with these voters remaining less likely to participate and more inclined to vote in person if they did.
Long-Term Disenfranchisement
Traditional analyses of restrictive voting laws often focus on a single election cycle, assuming that voter behavior will revert once the restrictions are eased. However, the findings from this study suggest otherwise. The disenfranchising effects of S.B. 1 appear to have a prolonged impact, even on dedicated voters. Over 85% of those impacted in the 2022 primary had participated in the previous three general elections. The barrier of attempting to vote but being unable to do so could have even more substantial effects on those less accustomed to voting regularly.
