As mega-cap tech companies rush to go public, investors might need to brace themselves for a potential end to the tech-driven stock surge. This wave of IPOs could be signaling a market peak, similar to the late 1990s dot-com boom. Analysts at TS Lombard suggest that these large public offerings indicate insiders’ eagerness to cash in while the market is at its zenith.
Historically, spikes in initial public offerings have preceded major market corrections, such as the dot-com bubble burst and the 2022 bear market, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission. In 2026, the IPO scene is not defined by volume but by the colossal scale of the offerings. Companies have collectively raised $28.8 billion, a significant 144% increase from the previous year, reported by Renaissance Capital. Major players like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are expected to add billions more.
SpaceX aims to raise $75 billion with a potential valuation of $2 trillion, while Anthropic, which has recently filed for its IPO, could reach a valuation of $1 trillion. “We are about to see another wave of IPOs, with SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic competing to make the biggest market splash. The question is ‘why now?’ If AI is going to transform the world, why are tech giants deciding to share the wealth with normies? Perhaps they know something we don’t,” Dario Perkins, an economist at TS Lombard, commented.
Early investors may be rushing to cash out
Lock-up periods restrict insiders from selling stock immediately post-IPO, but SpaceX plans to offer a limited amount initially, with more shares available as lock-up periods expire. In the late ’90s, many lock-up expirations coincided with the dot-com peak, according to a 2001 NBER study cited by Perkins. “Insiders know when public investors are overvaluing the business and decide to get out while the times are good,” Perkins noted, referencing peak IPO moments in various sectors, including real estate and commodities.
Investors could sell other stocks to get in on IPOs
Perkins also warned that the IPO boom could alter market liquidity, as investors might offload other stocks to buy into these new tech offerings. Additionally, he highlighted some ambitious goals outlined in SpaceX’s S-1 filing, including plans for lunar data centers and Martian communities. “Hubris is another factor,” Perkins wrote. “Data centers on the moon, anyone?”
