Potential for Above-Normal Rainfall in Upcoming Monsoon Season
This year’s monsoon season, running from June 15 to September 30, could bring higher-than-average rainfall, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This forecast offers a promise of relief for the metro Phoenix area, which recently endured its wettest fall in 2025, recording 6.31 inches of rain, followed by an unusually hot and dry winter and spring.
The increase in rainfall previously contributed to more vegetation growth, which, coupled with the dry conditions of the recent seasons, has heightened the risk of wildfires. Currently, aside from southern and southeastern Arizona, all state trust and federal lands are under various fire restrictions.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates the development of a super El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific. This could potentially bring needed moisture to Arizona later in the summer, particularly in August and September, as noted by Gabriel Lojero, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Phoenix. “A lot of that moisture from those tropical cyclones that develop off of the eastern tropical Pacific may move into our neck of the woods, especially as we head towards the latter end of the monsoon season,” Lojero stated.
Lojero also mentioned an increased risk of wildfires due to dry thunderstorms through June and July. Nonetheless, moisture from the Gulf of California anticipated in August could help curtail the fire season.
Monsoon storms driven by El Niño might temporarily alleviate the extreme heat conditions experienced over the past few years. Lojero explains, “So a more active monsoon season means we’ll have more days where there’s going to be higher chances for thunderstorm activity to materialize and thus more cloud cover, more rainfall. That will help mitigate, somewhat, any sort of extreme heat that may try to materialize.”
