The U.S. Air Force’s latest nuclear missile project, the LGM-35A Sentinel, is forecasted to achieve initial operational capability in the early 2030s. This timeline follows adjustments to the acquisition strategy of the project, which has been plagued by budget overruns.
Developed by Northrop Grumman, the Sentinel is set to succeed the Minuteman III missiles, a product of the Cold War era, now considered outdated after over 50 years in service.
Initially budgeted at approximately $77.7 billion, the Sentinel’s costs have surged mainly due to expenses related to constructing an extensive network of missile silos and launch control centers scattered across the Great Plains. The program’s financial mismanagement led to a price escalation approaching $160 billion, prompting the Pentagon to declare a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach in January 2024 and initiate a review process. Construction costs of such facilities have contributed significantly to the program’s financial challenges.
Originally projected to be ready by 2029, the Sentinel’s initial operational capability date has slipped first to 2030 and now further beyond. Despite these setbacks, the Pentagon declared in July 2024 that the missile’s replacement was vital to national security, warranting continuation of the program with a restructured approach to manage costs.
The Air Force anticipates completing the restructuring by the end of 2026, which will include a fresh Milestone B decision, previously granted in September 2020 but later rescinded. The service is leveraging recent progress and a revamped acquisition strategy to expedite the process.
Air Force Secretary Troy Meink emphasized on social media, “Modernizing our nuclear deterrent is a critical priority! The Sentinel program is on a data-driven path to deliver this capability, replacing a 1970s-era system to guarantee Peace through Strength for decades to come.”
To enhance oversight, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth established the direct reporting portfolio manager (DRPM) role in August, intended for critical major weapon systems like the Sentinel, the Minuteman III, the F-47 fighter, and the B-21 Raider. This position, filled by Gen. Dale White, is designed to streamline decision-making and expedite the delivery of major capabilities.
Gen. White remarked, “The DRPM has the direct authority to make decisions, informed by integrated inputs across the enterprise and in alignment with the mission priorities set by the Secretary of War and the Secretary for the Air Force. That construct allows us to resolve tradeoffs quickly and move with the speed required to deliver credible deterrence, while preserving the discipline this mission demands.”
Under the new DRPM structure, Gen. White and his team have assessed the Sentinel program’s progress, confirming its path to complete restructuring this year and project readiness in the early 2030s. While a new cost estimate is pending, a U.S. official indicated that the Milestone B process typically involves a cost assessment from the Pentagon’s Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE), with prior estimates suggesting a potential $140.9 billion expense under a revamped acquisition framework.
