Amid rising concerns over the potential for unethical practices, some political figures are taking a stand against the use of prediction markets by their staff. These platforms, which allow users to bet on the outcomes of various political and economic events, have drawn scrutiny from lawmakers who worry about their potential for misuse.
“It’s something we’ve talked about internally,” Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut told Business Insider, indicating a growing awareness on Capitol Hill about the issue. However, no official guidance has been released yet.
Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts recently became the first member of Congress to take a public stance by banning his staff from engaging in platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket. His decision has been met with bipartisan support, as he noted, “I’ve never put something out and had more immediate response from a bipartisan group of members than this.”
The move aligns with a broader legislative push to regulate prediction markets. Lawmakers have introduced a series of new bills aimed at changing the types of markets these platforms can offer and limiting government officials’ ability to trade. These proposals vary widely, from tackling insider trading to efforts to restrict the industry, which Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has compared to Big Tobacco.
Despite these efforts, no legislative measures seem close to being enacted, with the Trump administration reportedly taking a more favorable view of the industry. In the meantime, lawmakers are left to enforce ethics rules within their own offices.
While there is no concrete evidence of widespread trading among Capitol Hill staff, concerns persist, particularly in light of recent, strategically timed trades linked to events in Iran and Venezuela. The White House has denied any improper trading by its staff, but it has issued warnings against engaging in such activities.
“All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle stated.
Some, like Democratic Rep. Greg Casar of Texas, who sponsored a bill to ban prediction markets prone to insider trading, see no need for official bans in their offices, believing their staff would not engage in such activities.
Others, like Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Republican Sen. Todd Young of Indiana, have proposed measures to regulate prediction market participation from the top down. Merkley advocates for a ban on lawmakers trading on these platforms, while Young supports the idea of requiring disclosure of trades, saying it’s “appropriate, at least for starters.”
